Can He Bring Peace to a World on the Brink?
Born in the USA in 1942, I’ve lived in Mexico for nearly 50 years and have experienced the ups and mostly downs of eight Presidents. Six years ago, a new party (Morena) backed Presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). He promised to be a President who would prioritize the needs of the most neglected part of the population, the 70% majority who were living in poverty. They voted for him in the hope that, finally, there would be somebody who sincerely cared for them and would improve their standard of living. Having won by a landslide, AMLO had a mandate, and during his six years in office, he delivered on his promises. As a result, he achieved a 70+% approval rating, which he maintained throughout his administration.
Despite all attempts to deny him the chance to become President for a second term, Trump also got a mandate. Not only did he win the popular vote, but his party also won both houses of Congress. As with AMLO, this was a sign that the people wanted change.
TRUMP (THE SEQUEL), IN A CHANGED WORLD
Donald Trump has a knack for making an impact. He showed that capability and skill throughout his campaign. However, in today’s chaotic world, filled with uncertainty and the growing threat of an existential nuclear war, the US is in dire need of a President who will not only make an impact but will also make a difference. In his second attempt to make America great again, aka MAGA, Trump will face a changed and more complicated geopolitical world, with challenges requiring honesty, clarity, and a humanistic approach to negotiations with adversaries. The following are examples of challenges facing Trump:
● The Rapidly Evolving Multipolar World and BRICS – offer developing countries opportunities for achieving economic growth and prosperity through respect, cooperation, and partnering with each other as an alternative to the US Unipolar World’s use of bullying tactics, such as sanctions, threats, and regime change. Suppose Trump continues to implement these hardline policies. In that case, countries will refuse to do business with the US, preferring a friendlier and more constructive relationship with the BRICS countries.
● The Present Administration is Escalating the Wars during the Transition Period – with intentions of making it more difficult for Trump to negotiate with Putin and possibly ending the war in Ukraine. Attempts to expand the Middle East war began a few days ago with the invasion of Syria by Islamic militant groups supported by Turkey, Israel, the US, and Ukraine. In response, Iraq, Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran have entered the fray to defend the Syrian government from the invasion. If the Middle East becomes increasingly destabilized, Trump’s chances of reaching a deal with Putin may become more complex.
● Netanyahu’s need to draw the US into war with Iran – because that is his objective. Without total US support, Israel cannot defeat Iran. Trump is faced with a dilemma because, on the one hand, he supports Israel while, on the other hand, if he gets involved in a wider, more dangerous war with a very strong Iran military, he will have to continue financing foreign wars, which may interfere his US MAGA projects.
● Negotiate a deal with Putin under the Russian president’s conditions – because Russia has won the war and has the upper hand in negotiations. Putin is firm on the following conditions: Annexation of already occupied territories, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson provinces; no Ukraine admittance in NATO; the end of sanctions; and a non-aligned, nuclear-free Ukraine. Trump will not get what he wants, however hard he tries. Regardless of his negotiation experience, he’s at a critical disadvantage because Russia has virtually won the war. Not accepting Putin’s conditions now will only make it more difficult later on because Putin will gain control and claim more territories as his army pushes on.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Perhaps Trump’s most significant obstacle to fulfilling his goals is not fully understanding:
1. How much the world has changed since his first term.
2. The mindset of peaceful cooperation among his adversaries.
3. The significance of the global shift to a multipolar world.
4. That the US is no longer the only superpower.
As long as he denies these realities, the US will continue to bully the world, believing that doing so will help maintain its hegemony.
Although Trump’s personnel picks for resolving domestic issues seem to adhere to his policies and could help him achieve his goals, his foreign policy choices, which include hardliners and war hawks, don’t make sense to me. If Trump wants to stop financing and supporting foreign wars, as he claims he wants to do, he should choose people who are aligned with that concept. Of course, once he’s in office, he can change his mind and replace his initial picks, but the question remains: why did he choose those people in the first place?
Donald Trump has a unique opportunity for great success. His election comes at a time when the US is in dire need of change, and populations worldwide are clamoring for peace. During his first term, he had friendly relationships with Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un. That is a plus and shows his ability and willingness to communicate and negotiate with adversaries, contrary to the antagonistic attitudes expressed during the Biden years.
However, success will only be possible if Trump realizes that the overwhelming majority of the world’s nations want peace, not wars. The list includes Russia, China, and Iran, countries that have been perceived as evil enemies of the US for decades. With the growth of a Multipolar World, that perception must change. The move towards global peace and cooperation among nations represents a paradigm shift in the World Order. The US can be an integral part of it, and Trump can lead the way. Will he be up to the task? It all depends on his capacity to establish human connections with adversary leaders and a willingness to accept that in a multipolar world, respect for each country’s sovereignty is required, as well as the commitment to work together to promote peace and prosperity.
