Whether we’re aware of it or not, the last two months of the Biden administration have indicated the intention of his Government to continue supporting the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. During the past four years, diplomacy, negotiations, and communication with US adversaries have never been part of the present administration’s strategy for putting an end to wars that have killed or injured millions while destroying countless homes, hospitals, schools, mosques, energy infrastructures, etc. Although cutting off financial and military support to Israel and Ukraine could have put a halt to both wars, it was never the chosen path.
As we approach the January 20th inauguration, there are countless opinions, speculations, and armchair quarterbacking as to what a Trump 2.0 presidency will look like. Even among my trusted information sources and geopolitical analysts, there are different schools of thought.
Whatever your opinion of Trump, one thing is for sure…You can never place him in a specific political box. Since there has never been anyone so unpredictable in the Oval Office, we must be prepared for anything and everything at any moment. However, since he’s wholly committed to his fundamental mission of Making America Great Again, whatever that implies, his decisions will synchronize with his mission. He has a mandate and full support of his voter base, which wants him to end US involvement in wars to focus on fixing the problems at home.
HOW TRUMP CAN IMMEDIATELY IMPACT THE CHAOTIC GLOBAL SCENARIO
My greatest fear during these chaotic and uncertain times has been the growing possibility of an expanded war in the Middle East and an existential nuclear holocaust initiated by any one of the nine countries possessing nuclear weapons, especially the United States. Consequently, if Trump can make a dramatic shift by denying further US participation in dangerous wars, including Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, it will allow humanity to breathe a sigh of relief and jump off a brakeless runaway train that has us presently heading toward an existential catastrophe. Hopefully, Trump will heed the wishes of his base and make it his policy to avoid war, except as a last resort.
THE ISRAEL/HAMAS CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
Trump’s unpredictability was fully displayed in a move that surprised everyone last week. He pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Although the present ceasefire plan is almost identical to the plan presented in May 2023 that Netanyahu eventually rejected, a stern message from Trump to the Prime Minister was crucial in sealing the deal. According to an article in “The Guardian”, Trump sent his special envoy, Steven Witkoff, a real estate developer, to speak directly to the Prime Minister. According to some Israeli media, it was a “tense meeting.” The President-elect was emphatic that he wanted a ceasefire-for-hostage deal. Trump wanted the war in Gaza finished before he took office the next day.
First Stage: A six-week Israel/Hamas complete ceasefire, which includes 1) the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, 2) United Nations delivery of humanitarian aid through all crossings into Gaza, and 3) displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes.
Second Stage: Israel will accept a permanent ceasefire and Hamas will release the remaining living male hostages, both civilians and soldiers, for an exchange of Palestinian prisoners.
Third Stage: The remains of the Israeli hostages would be released and reconstruction of Gaza would begin.
Because of the failure of previous ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas, many analysts are doubtful that this agreement will withstand the test of time. Here’s why I am optimistic that it will work:
Netanyahu is in a precarious position because of:
1) Failure in his promise to defeat Hamas and Hezbollah.
2) Overextending the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) into a chaotic Syria, presently under the control of several Jihadist and mercenary militants.
3) Possible armed conflict with Turkey over the control of certain areas within Syria.
4) Failure of the Iron Dome to stop Yemen’s hypersonic missiles that are causing severe damage in Tel Aviv
5) An economy in stagnation as the war continues. Growth fell from 6.5% in 2022 to 2% in 2023 and is expected to fall to 1.1% in 2024.
6) Scared and weary Israelis fleeing the country in droves. According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, 82,700 individuals left Israel in 2024, while only 23,800 returned. Those leaving included highly skilled doctors and professionals.
7) A potential civil war if the Government falls apart,
8) He’s facing criminal charges (i.e., fraud, breach of trust, bribery), that will affect him once he leaves office, as well as an arrest warrant for crimes against humanity from the International Criminal Court (ICC),
9) The pressure from Trump is not what Netanyahu and his administration expected from him. It may indicate a change in Trump’s friendly attitude and the US’s unconditional military and financial support.
As long as the Ceasefire is sustainable, I believe it’s safe to say that war in the Middle East will remain in remission.
WILL DIPLOMACY WIN OUT IN UKRAINE?
Although a negotiated solution to end the devastating three-year war in Ukraine will be a tough nut to crack, recent intriguing statements by Trump reveal that he understands why Vladimir Putin considers NATO encroachment into Ukraine an existential threat to Russia’s national security. It’s the first time since President Reagan met with Russian President Gorbachov that an American President expressed any empathy towards his Russian counterpart.
As I mentioned in previous posts, Trump must realize that Russia has the upper hand regarding reaching a settlement to end the conflict. The fact that Russia is clearly winning the war will make it almost impossible for Trump to negate Putin’s minimum demands of 1) Permanently prohibiting Ukraine’s entry into NATO and remaining neutral and 2) accepting Russia’s acquisitions of the conquered territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
Even if Trump and Putin can reach an agreement, it remains to be seen whether the treaty will be accepted by the required 2/3 vote in the US Senate. If a treaty is not negotiated, the war will almost indeed continue, resulting in more casualties and destruction and increasing Russian demands once the war ends. I’m optimistic that the two Presidents, understanding the dire consequences if the war continues, will find a diplomatic way to reach a peaceful solution.
CONCLUSION
I can’t think of any former US President who has had to face more challenges than Trump will have during his second and final term in office. Apart from dealing with other countries and their leaders, he will find constant obstructions and defiance from Democrats, Republicans, and representatives of the “Deep State” who will fight “tooth and nail” not to relinquish their control over US domestic and foreign policy.
How artfully Trump handles the Ceasefire and negotiations with Putin will go a long way in determining the future success of his administration.
