BIRTH AND GRADUAL DECLINE OF THE US EMPIRE – PART 2

Signs and Symptoms of Declining United States Global Domination

Global hegemony: Worldwide domination by one country over all others through military, economic, and cultural power.

Since the USSR breakup in 1991, the United States has held superiority in commercial and military power, and the US dollar has been the world’s dominant reserve currency. Considering that politics is mainly about power and influence, throughout history, many nations with the most power and economic, social, cultural, and military influence have become empires, where they gain control and dominion over territories or States outside of their original boundaries. Although some empires have endured for centuries, they eventually disappear due to economic failures, internal social and cultural issues, environmental problems, political enemies, and wars. Some examples:

● Roman Empire (27 BC – 476 AD)
● Spanish Empire (1492 – 1898)
● British Empire (1583 – 1997)
● United States (1991 – present)*

*Although there are ongoing debates regarding when the United States claimed global hegemony, I chose 1991, following the breakup of the Soviet Union.

The downfalls of the British, Spanish, and Roman Empires resulted from internal and external factors unique to each empire’s historical context.

1. British Empire

• Economic Strain: The cost of maintaining a vast empire, especially after two world wars, put immense financial pressure on Britain. The economic decline made it increasingly difficult to sustain control over its colonies.
• Decolonization Movements: Rising nationalist movements in colonies, inspired by ideas of self-determination and independence, led to widespread demands for freedom. Britain, weakened by war and economic difficulties, gradually granted independence to its colonies, starting with India in 1947.
• Global Shifts in Power: The rise of the United States and the Soviet Union as superpowers after World War II, along with the creation of the United Nations, shifted global power dynamics, making imperialism increasingly untenable and unpopular.

2. Spanish Empire

• Economic Decline: Spain’s economy suffered from heavy reliance on precious metals from the Americas, which led to inflation and economic instability. Additionally, costly wars in Europe drained the empire’s resources.
• Military Overreach: Spain was involved in continuous military conflicts, including the Eighty Years’ War with the Dutch and wars with France and England. These wars overstretched Spain’s military capabilities and weakened its ability to defend its vast empire.
• Colonial Rebellions and Losses: The Spanish Empire faced numerous revolts in its colonies, particularly in Latin America, where independence movements in the early 19th century successfully broke away from Spanish control. The loss of these colonies significantly reduced Spain’s global power.

3. Roman Empire

• Political Instability: The Roman Empire faced chronic political instability, including frequent changes in leadership, civil wars, and power struggles among the elite. This undermined central authority and weakened the empire’s ability to respond to external threats.
• Economic and Social Decline: Heavy taxation, economic mismanagement, and a reliance on slave labor contributed to economic decline. Social unrest, including the widening gap between the rich and poor, further destabilized the empire.
• Military Challenges: The Roman military, once the empire’s backbone, became increasingly overextended and less effective. Invasions by barbarian tribes, such as the Visigoths and Vandals, eventually led to the sacking of Rome and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD.

In summary, the British Empire declined due to economic strain, decolonization movements, and global power shifts; the Spanish Empire fell because of economic decline, military overreach, and colonial losses; and the Roman Empire collapsed due to political instability, economic and social decline, and military challenges.

AND THE USA?

The potential downfall of the American “Empire,” could be attributed to various factors similar to those that led to the decline of the British, Spanish, and Roman empires and new factors that are unique to the times we live in. For example, although wars and military overreach have been factors attributed to the decline of previous empires, wars in 2024 have the potential to go nuclear at any moment, signifying global extinction. What’s happening now, with regards to Ukraine and Gaza, and the threat of a third war against China in 2025, has resulted in an adjustment in the “Doomsday Clock,” which was created by atomic scientists following WWll to calculate how close we are to the end of the world.  As of January 2023, the clock is at 90 seconds to midnight. It’s never been closer. In comparison, during the Cuban missile crisis, the clock was at 7 minutes to midnight.

Signs and Symptoms of the Decline of the US Empire

1. Economic Decline

• Debt and Deficit: The U.S. economy is straining due to persistent federal debt, now 35 trillion dollars, and out-of-control budget deficits (spending more than you receive). Ignoring and allowing these to go unchecked results in inflation, reduced investment in critical infrastructure, and an overall weakening of economic stability at home, in Europe, and beyond.
• Challenges to the Dollar’s Dominance: The U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency is being challenged as countries, including members of the BRICS alliance, explore more alternatives, including digital currencies and more favorable bilateral trade agreements in other currencies. This is reducing U.S. financial influence worldwide.
• Growing National Debt: The constantly rising US national debt raises concerns about long-term economic stability, potentially undermining confidence in the U.S. financial system. Repercussions will include:

Higher Interest Payments: More debt means more interest spending, leaving less for other essential government services.
Reduced Economic Flexibility: High debt limits the government’s ability to respond to economic crises, potentially worsening recessions.

Increased Borrowing Costs: Investors might demand higher interest rates, making it more expensive for the U.S. to borrow.
Inflation Risk: Financing debt by printing money could lead to inflation, eroding purchasing power.

Reduced Private Investment: Government borrowing could drive up interest rates, discouraging private sector investment and slowing economic growth.

Loss of Confidence in the Dollar and De-dollarization: Persistent debt growth could lead to credit rating downgrades, higher borrowing costs, and other countries preferring to trade in alternative currencies. 

Dependence on Foreign Creditors: Increased debt heightens reliance on foreign lenders, which could become a strategic vulnerability.

• Economic Inequality: Continuously widening income inequality, with the gap between rich and poor in 2024 the largest since right before the Great Depression. When a significant portion of the population feels excluded from economic opportunities, social cohesion and trust in government and powerful institutions could erode.
• Global Economic Shifts: The rise of other economies, particularly China, Russia, and India, as well as the BRICS alliance, is challenging U.S. economic dominance. As other nations grow economically and become less dependent on the dollar, the U.S. may face increased competition for global influence and resources.

2. Political Instability

• Polarization and Governance Gridlock: Increasing political polarization and partisan gridlock weaken the government’s ability to govern effectively and address pressing issues. This leads to a loss of public confidence in democratic institutions and a decline in the effectiveness of U.S. leadership, both domestically and internationally.
• Erosion of Democratic Norms: Democratic norms, such as the peaceful transfer of power, respect for the rule of law, and the protection of civil liberties, such as freedom of speech and the rights to assemble and peacefully protest, are eroding, leading to a crisis of legitimacy for the U.S. government. This weakens the country internally and diminishes its influence and image abroad.

3. Military Overextension

• Costly Military Engagements: Continuous involvement in costly and prolonged military conflicts, such as the proxy wars in Ukraine and Gaza, drains resources and erodes public support for the military and the government’s war policies. Such engagements’ financial and human costs weaken the U.S. economically and socially.
• Global Military Commitments: The U.S. maintains a vast network of over 800 military bases and commitments worldwide. Once these commitments become unsustainable due to economic constraints or shifting global dynamics, it could lead to a strategic retreat and a reduction in global influence.

4. Social and Cultural Fragmentation

• Cultural Divides: Deepening cultural divides, including those based on race, religion, and ideological differences (i.e., woke and trans movements, vaccine safety and effectiveness, climate change, the mass influx of illegal immigrants, Erosion of constitutional rights) are leading to increased social fragmentation, conflict and hate among the population. This weakens national unity and makes it more difficult to address common challenges.
• Decline in Social Cohesion: A decline in social cohesion, driven by economic inequality, political polarization, and demographic changes, could lead to widespread disillusionment with the idea of a unified national identity. This could undermine the sense of democracy and a shared purpose that has historically driven American success.

5. Global Power Shifts

• Rise of Rival Powers: China’s economic and military rise poses a significant challenge to U.S. global dominance. If China or other emerging powers establish themselves as credible alternatives to U.S. leadership, it could lead to a decline in American influence.
• Decline in International Influence: If the U.S. fails to adapt to changing global dynamics, such as the rise of multipolarity or the increasing importance of international institutions, it could lose its ability to shape global events. A retreat from multilateralism or an inability to maintain alliances could accelerate this decline.

7. Technological Disruption

• Cybersecurity Threats: The U.S.’s increasing reliance on technology makes it vulnerable to cyberattacks that could target critical infrastructure, financial systems, or even the electoral process. A significant cyberattack could disrupt the economy, undermine national security, and erode public trust in institutions.
• Technological Lag: If the U.S. falls behind in key technological sectors, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, or renewable energy, it could lose its competitive edge. This could lead to a decline in economic power and global influence.

In summary, signs of the decline and potential downfall of the American “empire” will be due to a combination of the following factors: economic decline, political instability, military overextension, social and cultural fragmentation, global power shifts, and technological disruption. The interplay of these factors could erode the foundations of U.S. power and influence, leading to a decline similar to those experienced by past empires.